Agreed, it's always hard to bet against Peyton Manning. His ability to see the whole field and check down to his open receivers is likely going to push the Raven's secondary to the limit. However, if Tyrell Suggs and the rest of Baltimore's pass rush can turn up the pressure on Manning, you never know what can happen. Do I see a pick-6 in Ed Reed's future for tomorrow? We'll see....
And as everyone knows, this is potentially Ray Lewis' last game. He obviously wants to leave on a winning note which would ultimately have him hoisting up the Lombardi Trophy in New Orleans. Can he rally the Raven's defense a few more times to make it a reality? Keep in mind that last week was the first time all season that Baltimore's four defensive horsemen (Lewis, Reed, Suggs and Ngata) all played in the same game. The end result was an impressive 24-9 win against Indianapolis in which the Colts failed to get into the end zone.
The Ravens appear to be feeling good about their chances against the AFC's number one seed. After last week's victory, Baltimore's Anquan Boldin said that he was glad to be getting another shot at Denver. When asked how it would be different than last time, Boldin simply replied, "We'll make it different..."
No doubt, the Broncos seemed to handle the Ravens fairly easily in the 34-17 victory at M&T Bank Stadium just a few weeks ago. But you can't overlook the fact that the Ravens were pretty banged up. Ray Lewis and fellow linebacker Dannell Ellerbie were out along with starting safety Bernard Pollard. On the offensive side, Marshall Yanda, Baltimore's best lineman was out while wide receiver Torrey Smith and running back Bernard Pierce left the game with injuries. It makes a huge difference not having these these six guys in the game. In addition to all of the this, this was Baltimore's first game with their "rookie" offensive coordinator, Jim Caldwell. (Although Caldwell had held other positions, including head coach of the Colts, this was his debut as OC).
There were also two key turnovers from the Ravens in the last match-up that, in all likelihood, dramatically changed the outcome of the game. One was a pick-6 right before the half on the Denver 2-yard line. Baltimore can not commit these same mistakes tomorrow.
There's little doubt that having Ray Lewis in the game tomorrow will make a big difference. He is arguably the best linebacker ever to play the game and quite possibly the greatest team leader in the history of sports. He has the unique ability to make everyone around him a better player. Expect Ray to light a fire under this team's ass tomorrow.
The Ravens arrived in Denver yesterday to get acclimated to high altitude. But does playing in the Mile-High city really make a difference to the visiting team? Possibly. I've been to Denver many times. Just walking around or doing routine activities is no big deal. But any strenuous activity, such as running away from a 250 pound linebacker, might take a little of the wind out of your sails.
Here are some interesting facts to consider going into tomorrow's game:
- Peyton Manning is 9-2 against the Ravens. He is currently on a 9-game winning streak against Baltimore and an 11-game winning streak for the season.
- In Manning's nine wins against Baltimore, he never passed for more than 300 yards/game. However, he did pass for over 300 yards in both of his losses.
- Manning's playoff record: 9-10 as opposed to Joe Flacco's 5-4 record
- Peyton Manning has never won a playoff game when the field temperature was below 40 degrees. The temperature is only supposed to be in the teens by game time tomorrow.
- Since 1980, the Ravens offense ranks number one in "3-and-outs" in playoff games
- The Ravens have the NFL's highest winning percentage (.583) of playoff road games (minimum 10 games)
- Joe Flacco had a career high of 3817 passing yards this season. His worse game of the season (and perhaps his career) came against the Broncos
Most people are picking Denver to win tomorrow And that's perfectly understandable. After all, they are the number one seed in the AFC. But I wouldn't start the retirement party for Ray Lewis just yet. I can remember during Raven's 2001 Super Bowl run, many people counted them out from the first playoff game (ironically against Denver). From there, they went on the road to beat Tennessee and Oakland. Could we see another road to victory from Baltimore? If they should happen to win tomorrow, this would possibly set up a rematch of last year's AFC Championship game against the Patriots. (The Patriots, a 10-point favorite, play Houston in Foxboro on Sunday.)
The way I see it, the Ravens are going to have to score at least 28 points to beat Denver. This will be tough considering that the Broncos have the 4th best defense in the NFL. On average, Denver gives up 18 points a game. The Ravens will need a big game from receivers Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith. And the defense will have to keep constant pressure on Manning in hopes of forcing a key turnover or two. On that same note, Joe Flacco needs to be very careful about forcing passes into double or triple coverage. Denver's Champ Bailey is every bit as dangerous as Baltimore's Ed Reed when it comes to picking off a pass.
As much as I'm compelled to go with logic and pick Denver to win, I just can't go against my home team. I'm going out on a limb here as I predict a 31-28 Raven's upset. Am I crazy? Maybe, but anything can happen on any given Sunday (or Saturday, in this case).
Nonetheless, win or lose, I look forward to watching the game with my friends and family tomorrow. We've been having a blast all season and tomorrow should be no different. While one buddy is heating up the smoker to slowcook a boatload of pulled pork BBQ overnight, another is fixing up a big batch of chili. And another bud is possibly bringing over some oysters. Toni (aka The Pusher) is making her scrump-dili-iscious shrimp dip. And me? I've got the drinks and cigars covered. So, even if things with the Ravens don't go our way, at least we'll be eating good and have the liquid refreshments to drown our sorrows.......
Here's to the Ravens!
kw
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