As for the Republicans. Donald Trump continues to mystify. He won big again yesterday, taking seven states. Ted Cruz took Alaska, Oklahoma and his home state of Texas. In my opinion, Texas was absolutely crucial for Cruz. Texas comes in second to only California in it's number of delegates (155), so there's a lot at stake there. Additionally, if Cruz couldn't win his home state, it would paint a dismal picture for his Presidential bid.
Marco Rubio took only one state, Minnesota, in last night's contest. Similar to Cruz and Texas, Rubio is going to face a very important primary in Florida. If he loses Florida (99 delegates), he's going to have an uphill battle for the rest of the campaign. Personally, I think he almost has to win Florida if he has any chance of toppling Trump.
Ben Carson is all but done. He announced today that he won't participate in tomorrow's Republican debate. He's getting pressure from his campaign supporters to stay in it. Carson is an honorable man and probably feels obligated to comply. But at some point, he's going to have to face the fact that he has absolutely no chance to get the nomination.
And the same thing goes for John Kasich. I think would make a good President, but the stars just didn't line up for him this time. The only state that he has a chance of winning is his home state of Ohio. This will serve as a consolation prize for Kasisch while taking 66 potential delegates away from Trump. Expect to see Kasisch throw in the towel after Ohio.
If Carson and Kasich drop out, it will definitely make things a little more interesting. As a result, Trump will be the one who probably feels most of the pain. The "new" votes will most likely wind up in the pocket of Cruz or Rubio. However, the only sure-fire way to defeat Trump would be for either Cruz or Rubio to drop out. If Trump runs head-to-head against either of those guys, I think he's in hot water.
Personally, I see Rubio having the better chance of beating Trump in a one-on-one match. But the Sunshine State is absolutely key for him. If Rubio loses to Trump in Florida's upcoming primary (March 15), he might have to do some serious soul searching. Rubio, in my opinion, is presidential material. And I predict that he will be in the White House one day. But if he fails to take Florida, would he be willing to take one for the team and let Ted Cruz run head-to-head against Trump?
At this stage, the delegate count is as follows:
- Trump - 319
- Cruz - 226
- Rubio - 110
So, although Trump has taken most of the state's, the actual delegate count is still well within reach. 1237 delegates are need to secure the Republican nomination. And since Trump hasn't taken more then 50% in any one state, it seems logical that a one-on-one against either Cruz or Rubio would be up for grabs.
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