The State of the GOP Campaign

Well, a few more Republican primaries are now in the book and the drama continues to unfold. First off, Donald Trump had a really good night. Yesterday's biggest victory was undoubtedly Florida where Trump beat Marco Rubio in his home state by nearly two to one. With his win in the Sunshine State, Trump picked up 99 delegates while delivering the the coup de grace for Rubio's campaign. I have to admit, Rubio was my guy when all of this started. I really thought he would have had better numbers at this stage. Rest assured, this won't be his last presidential run.

Trump also picked up victories in North Carolina, Missouri (by a very narrow margin over Ted Cruz), Northern Marianas (it's not technically a state but it does count for 9 delegates), and perhaps somewhat surprising, Illinois. If you remember, Trump's campaign rally in Chicago was cancelled last weekend due to potential "unrest" from protesters. But after the votes were counted, Trump ultimately had the last laugh.

The one state that Trump did not take last night was Ohio. It wasn't too big of a surprise that John Kasich won Ohio. After all, it is his home state. After his victory, Kasich gushed like Sally Field at the '85 Oscar Awards. I guess he might as well enjoy it while it lasts because there's no way he's gonna be the party's nominee. It will be interesting to see how long he'll hang around after the beer is gone from the Ohio celebration.

With a little over half of the nation's primaries already in the books, Trump now has 673 of the necessary 1237 delegates to win the automatic nomination. Ted Cruz is still within striking distance with 411 votes. Although Ted Cruz did not win any of yesterday's contests, he will likely benefit from Rubio's withdrawal. Keep in mind, California alone carries 172 delegates. So, if Cruz can stay somewhat close to Trump and then take California on the final primary day of June 7, it could very possibly keep Trump under the 1237 mark.

Should Trump miss the magic number, the politicking will go into overdrive at the Republican convention. The candidates who dropped out will have an opportunity to steer their delegates in the direction of their choice. And let's face it, Donald Trump hasn't made a whole of friends on that debate stage during this campaign. So, don;t expect anyone to direct any delegates over to him. This is why I think it's absolutely crucial for Trump to get to the 1237 mark. If it goes to the convention, I don't see the GOP making him the nominee.

The GOP will likely nominate someone whom they think has the best chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election. However, if they do this, it could actually backfire on them as many Trump supporters have been making rumblings that they'll sit the election out. Of course, this could also set up a scenario for a third party candidate (Although I'm not really sure what the rules are concerning deadlines to register as candidate). As I've said before, the GOP is walking on thin ice. Let's say Trump finishes in first (after the primaries) with 1200 votes. The GOP is going to be between a rock and hard place.

As always, stay tuned. We've only just begun..........

kw